摘要：<span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;"><span style="font-size:small;">西安不鏽鋼精軋管及西安不鏽鋼精密管生產(chǎn)廠家</span></span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">&nbsp;1</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、西安不鏽鋼精軋管行業(yè)主要特點。</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">成長性好於普鋼，周期性強於普鋼，且近幾年的多次經(jīng)驗表明，西安不鏽鋼精軋管和普鋼複蘇的時點基本相同，但景氣反彈的力度更大，見頂?shù)臅r間也更早</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(2)2016</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年中國精密不鏽鋼管行業(yè)直接和間接出口量占產(chǎn)量的比重為</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">36%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，超出普鋼</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">13</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">個百分點</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">精密不鏽鋼管的終端消費領域中，廚具白電業(yè)占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">45%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，建築裝飾業(yè)僅占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">19%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，而普鋼近</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">54%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的需求集中在建築地產(chǎn)領域，表明西安不鏽鋼精軋管的需求更依賴出口和消費品</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(3)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">由於技術等原因，精密不鏽鋼管項目達產(chǎn)周期較長，行業(yè)實際有效產(chǎn)能通常比統(tǒng)計產(chǎn)能低，因此在西安不鏽鋼精軋管行業(yè)集中度較高</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(CR5</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">達到</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">70%)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的背景下，其需求趨勢更值得關注</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;(4)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">目前國內(nèi)精密不鏽鋼管產(chǎn)量中，</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">300</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">係</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">(</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">鉻鎳係</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">)</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">占比超過</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">50%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，鎳的成本占</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">304</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">冷軋精密不鏽鋼管價的</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">50%-90%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，因此精密不鏽鋼管行業(yè)盈利對鎳價及鎳庫量高度敏感，需求結(jié)構(gòu)也會受到鎳價影響，但需求總量受鎳價影響不大。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">2</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、今年上半年西安不鏽鋼精軋管行業(yè)景氣有望繼續(xù)好於普鋼。預計中國經(jīng)濟增速前高後低，全年</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">增</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">10%</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">，且出口和消費對</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">的貢獻將加大，這意味著上半年精密不鏽鋼管的高需求得以延續(xù)的概率較大。目前國內(nèi)外精密不鏽鋼管與普鋼價格的比值、精密不鏽鋼管企業(yè)的盈利均處於曆史低位，我們認為精密不鏽鋼管價上行空間將超過普鋼，行業(yè)盈利能力也將底部回升。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">3</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、兼並重組及技術進步是未來行業(yè)發(fā)展方向。目前中國精密不鏽鋼管行業(yè)集中度顯著低於其他各國，而發(fā)達國家精密不鏽鋼管鋼企業(yè)之間仍可能繼續(xù)重組，以進一步提升區(qū)域及全球市場競爭力，因此未來國內(nèi)規(guī)模以上的精密不鏽鋼管企業(yè)之間兼並重組的可能性較大</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">;</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">與此同時，我們認為國內(nèi)精密不鏽鋼管廠加大研發(fā)和生產(chǎn)</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">400</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">係及雙相精密不鏽鋼管產(chǎn)量的力度也將進一步加大。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span> <p style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;"> <span style="font-size:small;"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">4</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">、投資建議。基於對各品種鋼以及精密不鏽鋼管行業(yè)的景氣趨勢判斷，我們給予精密不鏽鋼管行業(yè)“推薦</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">”的投資評級。目前國內(nèi)</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">股上市公司中，僅太鋼不鏽和寶鋼股份主要生產(chǎn)精密不鏽鋼管板材，撫順特鋼主要生產(chǎn)精密不鏽鋼管長材、其中太鋼不鏽是國內(nèi)精密不鏽鋼管行業(yè)的龍頭，</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">2010</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">年上半年我們重點推薦太鋼不鏽，給予其”推薦</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">A</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">“的投資評級大多數(shù)的使用要**長期保持建築物的原有外貌。在確選用的精密不鏽鋼管類型時，主要考慮的是所要求的審美標準、所在地大氣的腐蝕性以及要采用的清理製度。然而，其它應用越來越多的隻是尋求結(jié)構(gòu)的完整性或不透水性。例如，工業(yè)建築的屋頂和側(cè)牆。在這些應用中，物主的建造成本可能比審美更為重要，表麵不很乾淨也可以。在乾燥的室內(nèi)環(huán)境中使用</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><span lang="EN-US">304</span></span><span style="font-family:宋體;mso-ascii-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;mso-hansi-font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">精密不鏽鋼管效果相當好。</span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';font-size:small;"> </span> </p> <span style="font-family:宋體;font-size:small;"> </span>